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The Betting Strategies

The Betting Strategies

People who enjoy placing football bets will be most familiar with the match the bookmaker offers you before the game starts. This is known as the bet on the match the bookmaker offers. This is a bet on the result of a previous football match between two recognized teams, say Chelsea playing against hated rival Arsenal.

Most people will now know that most bookmakers will offer the outright win for either Chelsea or Arsenal, with the typical percentage of what the bookmakers expected the result to be. By betting “on the basis of the bookmakers’ odds” people can benefit from having the odd of winning matched with their stake money.

The first thing to explain to new gamblers is that the bookmakers do not make a decision on the outcome of a match based on some sort of inner need to see the result of the match. The odds given by the bookmakers were arrived at by collating opinion from many different bookmakers, and the odds were only established once both bookmakers had agreed on the likely outcome of the match. In the instance of football matches the bookmakers can agree on a likelihood by taking some sort of view on the likely number of goals likely to be scored, or whether it’s more likely there will be a goal or not.

The bookmakers adjust their odds by an amount depending on the sort of bet that has been placed. An “over” bet will mean that the bookier thinks the actual probability of a certain team winning has exceeded the bookmakers’ expectation. An “under” bet would suggest there is a greater probability that the team will lose than win, and thus the under bet wins. The basic Implied Probability of a winning outcome for the over and under bets is often described as they “are aligned” or “alternate outcomes”.

For example, say Chelsea are playing in a match against Arsenal. Bookmakers would normally offer a spread of around 2-3 goals, which means if you bet on Chelsea and the predicted number of goals, between 1 and 3, you will win if Chelsea win the game, and you would get your stake money back plus double your stake money. However, say you took the “over” option and instead suggested you may bet on Chelsea to win, even though the actual probability of that happening is Portuguese, or possibly even only 50% of the actual probability. The bookmakers would recognize an arbitrage opportunity if you recommend that you were taking the “Egp88” option as you are likely to win your bet if the predicted number of goals did happen to be greater than the actual probability.

These opportunities are not available for the “under” bets, because in mathematics making an over/under number is equivalent to saying there will be no more goals, whereas in the case of the Over it is equivalent to saying there will be no more goals. The opportunities for such “over-overs” are relatively rare, but if you become aware of them and if you can ensure the bets are placed in such a way that the bookmakers will not lose cash then you could become a winner.